Kini Biz Asked ...

"could Halim Saad have done it on his own?" ... in light of his lawsuit ....

my take ... "Could George Bush Junior have done it on his own???"

Happy Fathers Day

My friend, Roger Wang, who also happens to be one of the country's finest guitarist ... has composed a lovely song for his daughter. Plus he sings, OMG ... that is so rare. The video sets with the lego pieces, must have been such a labour of love ... Wonderful Roger...

This is the most important song I have ever written. 

It's also my first vocals outing and first music video that I created myself.

The song was inspired by my daughter's obsession with fairy tales and being a princess. It sums up a lot of my feelings about being a father as well as the hopes and lessons I have for her. 

It's often hard for a father to relate to dolls and the way young girls play. Playing Lego together was one of the few activities that we shared. All those hours helped bond us. This video was made with those Lego sets and mini-figures. They became the best way for me to express this song visually.

This song and video come from a very personal place, but it goes out to all fathers and daughters out there, regardless of age.

HAPPY FATHER'S DAY

Biz News Snippets Worth Following

I read, almost religiously, my favourite business magazines, in order of preference ... International Business Week, Fortune and Bloomberg Markets. I do read Forbes now and then but its such a slanted Republican thingee its like Harakah. I think to see how people from various sides and various places look at and view business and investments help to broaden our perspective no end. 

Since my almost weekly sojourn to Singapore, its also fun to read what the little island's papers are saying about business and investments.

Iskandar

The mood is good for Iskandar. They highlighted how well Affiniti Residences sold last weekend, noting that the price was RM850 to RM1,000 psf. They compared that to 1Medini which as launched in January 2012 and sold for just RM450 psf. Hmmm... whetting yand stirring up Singaporeans to further look at Iskandar as a great investing or flipping hotpot. They seemed focused on the Medini or rather the E&O branding, and they also seem to like Puteri Harbour.

Over the next 3-5 years there will be another 13,500 condos to be sold or built in Iskandar. Compare that to just 8,000 units launched between 2000 and 2012, you get what I am saying. Obviously, the powers to be in Singapore have tacitly approve of Singaporeans to invest big into Iskandar or else you won't be getting big spreads with lovely pics in the papers there. Possibly that is to quell the over investment into Singapore properties, which is already way out of the hands of most Singaporeans.

The supposed mulling over a special property tax by Johor state government seems to have little effect. Its not just Singaporeans though, a Japanese investment fund just bought an entire tower of 285 units at Medini at Iskandar Residences ... somehow I don't think they will be staying there. I wonder, how many will?

My view is that all is well and good for at least the next 12 months when big guns start to launch their flagship property projects. It is the sub-sale and resell or flipping that goes on that is the crux. Will there be people buying on the resale market for 20%-30% higher than the launched price just 6 months ago? It will be very hard to see that happening because of the number of projects that are coming on board. If all are pricing higher at RM900 and upping them to RM1,100 psf because of anticipated demand ... and we are not talking of just 5 or 10 extra condo developments... we  are talking about 30 to 40 a year ... its a tough ask to see it snowballing much further. I suspect RM1,300-1,500 psf would be the peak as people will start comparing with prices in Penang and KL.

The optimists will say look what Singaporean and foreign buyers can do to Sentosa property prices. Well, yeah, do you know how big is Iskandar compared to Sentosa?

The Real QE Poser

Why is the probable end of QE frightening markets? It has to do with interest rates. The selling now has largely been in REITs and dividend yield plays (which include a lot of blue chips). As rates rise from near zero, the yields of these counters will be reassess

ed relatively to the higher risk free yield. What we are seeing is the global portfolio rebalancing. Many funds are reducing their holdings in the above counters appreciably. The other side of the coin is that big banks should benefit from better net interest margins as they usually have a large pool of inert savings, which will not be so easily or swiftly adjusted in the rates. However, we are not seeing a proportionate flow of funds into big banks yet, although it should happen very soon.

We are not going to see a massive correction, in fact, we are already correcting. The markets are discounting all that ahead of time. Markets has to discount what it can forsee or roughly anticipate. In fact, higher interest rates will force funds out of dividend yield plays and into riskier instruments. All said, it is also May June July we are talking about, remember Sell In May Come Back In August ... actually its also summer holidays for a lot of people in the investing field although I doubt that will be as true as the markets are getting more and more global, not US or Europe centric.

Wednesday S&M Show Podcast

Share buybacks ... not all good.

http://www.bfm.my/snm-show.html


Libertango (I've Seen That Face Before) - Grace Jones

Happy Father's Day - Let The Man Be The Man He Is

I never thought a simple posting like this could have struck so many chords. We all love our mums, and rightly mums get most of the accolade, Mother's Day is always bigger than Father's Day. This posting got xx FB likes, I still cannot believe so many felt the same way. Its like we are so connected in what's deepest in us. I may not know all my readers personally, but I feel so humbled to know you all feel the same way. Its not easy to be a blogger, if there are 100 readers, there'd be 4 or 5 who will just hate your guts and they will post nasty comments to let you know that - even though out of the 100 70 or more may like you, but most will not bother to write and tell you nice things, thats the reality when you put yourself out there ... hence reading the comments for this posting was very shocking and restored my faith in humanity. I thought I had to say this, made me realise what I thought was something simple was probably my most important posting because so many people really cared.
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I had a good chat with a friend about dads growing old. I assume we are all filial sons and daughters. When our dads grow older and older, maybe some will have retired from their careers by now. I wonder how many of us "love our dads" in the way that allows him to continue to be the man that he is.

Dads who are now retired are dads from a different era. Most of our dads are the strong silent types, not like many of the younger dads nowadays who will try to be good friends with their kids. 

A man of the house usually takes the lead in the household. He takes care of the paycheck. He calls the shots in many areas of the household matters. When they retire, they may not have access to as much "money as before" - gee, do you ever wonder why, thats because he has brought you guys up, send you guys to further your studies, even finance your first car or even your first home, down payment for this and that. Flying you back from overseas, etc... 

Now he may be pushing 60 or 70, he may be living primarily off what you kids give him. We somehow think if we give them a few hundred or a thousand or two ringgit a month, we have done our part. Your dad is still the man he was, faults and all. He used to call the shots, ask you guys where you like to have dinner, ask you guys what you want for your birthdays.

Now, he has to take money from you guys. Funds may not be so "loose". When you guys take him out to dinner, he doesn't have the "right" to pay for you guys anymore. Heck, he may even shy away from ordering whatever he likes from the menu or dictate where he wants to have dinner. He may not even be able to just take your mum wherever they wish to go for holidays. 

In these very many small ways, he is not "allowed to be the man he used to be". We as children should empathise with that. If we can afford it, we should give him more than what he needs to survive. We should allow our father to be the father he still is. 

A person's spirit is the hardest to please and easiest to break. Love comes in many disguises. Love is not just money but our attitude as well. Reconsider how we love our dads. Mine is no longer around. If your dad still is, be thankful, and be the better son and daughter. Love your dad better.

Have A Good Look At Cypark Resources

The market has been focused on oil & gas, marginal oilfields, Iskandar plays and even Penang's Second Bridge plays. Running out of ideas? So are the analysts. Still, there are gems to be found, and one of them is in Renewable Energy, Cypark Resources.

Cypark Resources Berhad is a Malaysia-based company engaged in the provision of environmental technology and engineering solutions to both the private and public sectors. Its services include transforming neglected, degraded or contaminated land into sustainable and manageable fields. Its projects include the restoration of a disused mining land in Cyberpark, Cyberjaya, and the Taman Beringin Safe Landfill Restoration project in Kuala Lumpur. 

It has three segments: landscaping, which is engaged in the provision of landscape services for public parks, public amenities and other landscaping developments; maintenance, which is engaged in the provision of maintenance services for public parks, public amenities and other landscape developments, and environmental, which is engaged in the provision of nature conservation and environmental amelioration. In September 2011, it acquired Cypark Suria (Sua Betong) Sdn. Bhd., Cypark Suria (Kuala Sawah) Sdn. Bhd. and Cypark Suria (Bukit Palong) Sdn.



The company is pumping up the revenue platform, hence if you focused solely on reported numbers you may miss the bigger picture. 1Q13 revenue rose by 20.6% to RM51m due to the start of Cypark's solar farm in Pajam and higher revenue from its waste-to-energy projects. At the same time, total costs rose by 26.8% to RM39.7m as the company is aggressively putting up RE projects around Malaysia. Management aims to add 15MW of  RE capacity in FY13, mainly in 2H. This will increase Cypark's total RE capacity by 83% to 33MW by end-FY13. The higher start-up cost has offset Cypark's top-line growth, leading to a 6.4% decline in EBIT to  RM10.1m.

The stock could be catalysed by the successful rollout of new renewable energy (RE) projects and signing of the Ladang Tanah Merah landfill concession. In addition to its MoU in Myanmar, Cypark can replicate its 
RE model in other Asean countries such as Thailand, which already has a feed-in-tariff mechanism in place.

Disclaimer: The content on this site is provided as general information only and  should not be  taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed  as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas  expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result  of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility.  Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

Action, Reaction, Inaction ... Karmatic

This video is about an island in the ocean at 2000 km from any other coast line. Nobody lives, only birds and yet, you will not believe what you will see here.

Please don't throw anything into the sea. Unbelievable, just look at the consequences.

Asset Class Returns As At 31 May 2013

This is highly interesting. As a test, if you were looking at the table what could you say or what kind of observations could you make. Not trying to be an asshole or "guru" here, but if you are honest about your knowledge of markets, the ability to synthesize data and tell a story, you should do well in financial markets. If you can't, then you shouldn't be, or are just plodding along. To be in the markets you can study, but you have to have passion for it. Make your own observations before scrolling down.


- The one month data does not tell us much.

- YTD, the equity markets have been well led by the US, in fact emerging markets have been trailing ... suffice to say that most of the Asian markets which have been surging so far this year have been an anomaly, which further depresses the real performance of other emerging markets.

- We know the financial markets have been awashed in liquidity with QEs from various central banks, but where have they been headed. The YTD figures are again revealing, some have exited gold in a big way. Them taking money off gold may be just profit taking or likely to mean they are more comfortable that currencies won't be debased anymore, or that bailouts have finally went past a peak. The reduction of fear or volatility could be another reason.

- So where is the liquidity? They went largely into US stocks, US REITs and even foreign REITs. The REITs interest is but a reflection in a strong bottoming in property price correction and a resurrection of demand, and also a hint that people are more employable even now to take up new mortgages, and/or that a lot more PE/VC/vulture funds are taking advantage and making deals on distressed commercial properties.

- Look at crude oil, one month, YTD or 1 year even, that is a good reflection about the robustness (or lack of) of the global economic recovery. The recovery is benign and in patches still.

- Look at commodities, again the same conclusion as for crude oil, still working of excess inventory in the global system.

- Look at the emerging equity markets from 1 year ago, there has been a dramatic shift away from emerging markets back to US and possibly Japanese stocks. Again the robust performance of other Asian equity markets is very telling as it is viewed as largely unscathed and the equity markets there do attract sufficient interest compared to other emerging markets.

- The most important point one has to conclude is a drastic shift away from bonds of all kind. Bonds have been great on a 3 year basis but more funds are moving out. They move out because they either think there is a bubble there (too safe, and too many people willing to pay too high a price for low yields) and/or equity provides a better return even after accounting for risk.

From the above, I am quite confident that the current sell down in equities will be brief.

Wednesday Podcast S&M Show

http://www.bfm.my/snm-show.html

Long term investing vs short term ..... and Llorando by Rebekah del Rio.

The Fears Of The End Of Quant Easing

Markets everywhere have been shaken over the last two weeks. First was the correction in the Japanese equity markets. It has lost substantial ground over just the last couple of weeks. Next came the Bernanke's testimony which led all to conclude that QE would be ending soon. 

If an article in Monday's Wall Street Journal is anything to go by, the U.S. Federal Reserve is getting ready to unwind its massive monetary stimulus program. So, is that prospect as alarming for financial markets as feared?

Fed officials have mapped out a strategy to wind down its $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program in careful steps, although the timing of when that will start is still being debated, noted Fed watcher Jon Hilsenrath wrote in the WSJ. 

Any unwinding of the Fed's quantitative easing (QE) program, which has fueled a rally in equity markets and other risk assets, is generally viewed as negative and any indication of this happening has been highly anticipated in the U.S. since late last week. 

"Having spent two New York sessions pricing in a sharp change in Fed stance, it is not obvious that the article was worth the wait," analysts at Westpac said in a note. "The timing of the unwinding of QE remains data-dependent, not a serious prospect until perhaps late U.S. summer at the earliest."

Analysts say that in essence, the Fed appears to be managing market expectations that its quantitative easing program will not last forever. The Fed has said that it would maintain its key interest rate between zero and 0.25 percent until the unemployment rate fell to 6.5 percent. It has also committed to monthly purchases of bonds until labor market conditions improve substantially. 

And it is the recent signs of improvement in the jobs market that has renewed talk about a possible end to the quantitative easing. The latest non-farm payrolls report showed the U.S. economy created 165,000 new jobs last month, much more than expected, helping push the unemployment rate down to 7.5 percent. Data last week meanwhile showed jobless claims at their lowest level in almost 5-1/2 years. 

It looks like the markets are just grabbing at excuses to do a bit of sell down after a spectacular run in most equity markets since the beginning of the years. The timing is still a bit uncertain, but seriously folks, the end game only looks to peter out by December this year. It is very good that markets are readying itself for the end of QE.

The Fed officials are not going to raise interest rates until unemployment comes down to 6.5 percent, and could only come earliest by 1st quarter of next year. What is likely to happen is when unemployment dips below 7%, we may see a scaling back from the $85 billion buyback figure to maybe halve that. 

The knee jerkers would be better off looking at the positives:
- That [an easing of QE] would be good for U.S. stocks because it would mean the U.S. economy is doing a lot better.
- That at least markets are already trying to price in the end of QE, instead of a surprising one off massive sell down.

The last part is very important as we can easily reference to the 1994 massive sell down, just because Alan Greenspan never gave any indication as to the imminent rise of interest rates in the US. That experience probably forms the backdrop for Bernanke's communication strategy. He is managing expectations very well. By putting it out there with the 6.5% unemployment target, it allows all to see the looming horizon.

I still think halving the buyback when unemployment dips below 7% would be an excellent strategy to manage expectations further. Everyone knows QE cannot be there forever.

I like the equity markets now more than in the beginning of the year. Japan has corrected substantially even though Abenomics will still be in the works. This will drive Japan to retests its high this year soon enough. I believe the sell down was a good profit taking exercise and actually allowing a lot of stale bulls (i.e. those holding onto Japanese shares for over 20 years) to exit - all that will come back to the market place for sure.

The local Malaysian equity market has held up better than the rest, and confidence breeds confidence. Having said that, Malaysia is only up 4.6% so far this, thanks to the uncertainty over the elections period. Other Asian markets have risen a lot more, and hence had more room for downside: Indonesia 15.2%, the Philippines 16.4% and Thailand 10.6%.

My Life's Aphorisms

Readers of my blog will notice that I haven't been updating my blog lately ... usually I am pretty not that busy ... now I have to go to Singapore every week for a couple of days ... and then there are the many meetings that suddenly crop up and classes that I have to give for Murasaki ... blah blah ... I miss writing my blog, I love it because its like a diary of sorts, I cannot ignore my blog cause its now 6 years of my life. If anyone reads it carefully, they would know me very well cause I never write to create a false persona, if you think I am an asshole, you are probably right. I don't like to be busy, it makes time flies, and I don't get to sit and relax and enjoy. My Monday nights drinks sessions are sacred, those of you who are part of it knows too well. We all have to slow things down and take stock of what we are doing, whether they correlate to fulfillment of your goals in life, so I think its time to re-look my own aphorisms in life, making sure I stay centered amidst the noise.

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Don't aim just to be rich, aim to create wealth, create better lives, create better livelihoods for people, create jobs where others can contribute to society and be a useful participant.

Use your wealth to fund your passions and causes, and don't forget to enjoy yourself in the process.

Stand up for injustice, for the downtrodden, for those who cannot help themselves. Aim for equality for all, in all.

Have a zest for good things, finer things in life, its OK to to enjoy.

Surround yourself with positive people. Make sure your life partner is enthusiastic, have energy for life, and empathy for people, friends and family.

Don't wait for fate or destiny to affect your life, its your life, make it happen.

Finding something or someone that/who means more to you than yourself.

Make a conscious effort not to hold onto people who don't love us or people who hate us or people who make us mad or people who take us for granted ... we also care too little for the people who love us unconditionally, the people who adore us, the ones who still stick around in spite of all your shortcomings.

Make an effort to to live healthy for yourself and the people who care for you. Live long but more importantly live well.

Make a conscious effort to better the lives of the people around you, your family and circle of close friends.

Bloom where you are planted, not whine about why you are where you are.