The amount of liquidity swishing in the global economy, it is unlikely to see any equity led correction in the forseeable future. Cyprus was but a blip, maybe if the same thing happened to Spain or Italy would we see anything resembling a major correction. No one seems to be ready to take back the liquidity from the financial system, not anytime soon.
The rising tide has brought up most equity markets, however, some hefty action may be seen in currency realignment battles. Why? Since most major economies are setting interest rates close to zero, that is as good as it gets to try to pump up the economy. What is left is a corresponding decline in purchasing power which lifts competitive advantage to further boost their economies.
Japan has thrown a spanner into the works by being aggressive in printing money following decades of inertia. When that happens, it negates the weaker Euro and US dollar, which may curb their economic intentions.
Safe havens such as yen, Swiss, the loonie and Aussie currencies may have seen funds leaving their shores as the need for safe havens seems to be dissipating. That could be because the US economy's recovery seem to have a bit more legs in it, plus Asia and Latin America are holding well. China seems to have navigated its excessive speculation in property and stock markets well enough by driving it down without a hard landing. China still has to grapple with State companies debt levels and some inroads seem to have been made there.
So, how should the currency wars play out. Soros was rumoured to have been shorting the Aussie dollar but the rumoured size of $1bn is not going to move markets. I would still short the Aussie dollar, not on betting on interest moves, but on usual holders of high interest rate papers in NZ and Aussie bonds (i.e. Japanese) to liquidate to move back to Japan as thing are rosier there.
Overvalued currencies are there for many reasons: mainly because they were largely unscathed from the 2008 crisis and a solid local economy.
The most undervalued major currency has to be the HKD. Its economy is not tied to the US but the currency is. What you get is smart investors would just keep piling into HK dollar assets until it is so frothy that they cannot take it anymore but will change it to a different basket weighted currency of yen, yuan, dollar and euro. The HKD is so artificially weak which is good for the local economy, tourism and MICE related events. I guess they will wait till things boil over in property and stocks before they have the political will to act.
For the rest of the year, these are my shorts and longs:
SHORTS - Aussie dollar, NZ dollar, Canadian loonie, Japanese yen
LONGS - Malaysian ringgit, Indonesia rupiah, Thai baht, HKD, Taiwan dollar, Chinese yuan
Parliament SeatsIn 2003, BN won 198 seats.In 2008, BN won 140 seats.In 2013, BN won 133 (+7)In 2018, ????
State Seats2008 - BN 344 vs 1612013 - BN 275 vs 230 (PR +71)
- We reduced the number of BN’s parliamentary seats by 7
- We have secured an enormous gain in State seats by 71
- We have driven home the point to Barisan that we are the rightful owner of the country
- We proved to MCA, Gerakan & MIC that they are irrelevant
- Perak & Terengganu almost made it
- There are more people who voted for opposition. BN polled 5.220 million votes to Pakatan Rakyat’s 5.489 million,
BN please take note of the kind of mandate you have secured, its not really 50-49. You know
and I know with the phantom voters allegations, gerrymandering, vote buying and vote stuffing
allegations, the real figure should be somewhere in the region of 56-44, take note again of the
kind of mandate you have secured.
Somebody mentioned that Gandhi took his fight for independence some 32 years while
Mandela spent 27 years seeking justice and freedom. We are barely in our journey for 10
years. Our time will come. We will still fight the "dirtiest election tactics" issues head on for now
but know in our hearts where we are headed - the longer road, the road less travelled, the road
taken by heroes and those who champion the triumph of the human spirit.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Some of you commented that the nation is not ready to accept Pakatan or rather we have not
convinced the rural heartlands in East Malaysia and pockets of Johor, Pahang and northern
Malaysia. That may be true but only to a small extent. Its the Parliamentary seats
gerrymandering ... it is quite ridiculous ... how can a constituency with 100,000 elect one rep
and another with just 25,000 elect another??? Do you know how of these seats are there?
We can call for Bershi 4.0 but we also know we have to work with a slanted playing field. I
think the people's march towards a people's government is stronger than what most of you
make it out to be. We are reaching the masses, its the convoluted and lopsided rules that
make it seem that way.
Truth be told, politics does not affect my livelihood, I will still get by. Truth be told, I could have stayed on in Australia and be gone from Malaysia more than 20 years ago. But its my backyard. I could be drawing a good salary with good career prospects somewhere else ... but when I read Sydney Morning Herald, South China Morning Post of Singapore's Straits Times ... I don't feel as if I am reading about things or people that mattered to me. There is a disconnect that I cannot explain.
It is not so grand a sacrifice on my part to be back in Malaysia, its my backyard. Why should I care if the politicians grabbed billions from the country's resources? Why should I care, when the bulk of people do not?
If you look at the manifestos from both sides, they are pretty similar, its not an economic policy issue, it is something a whole lot bigger than that.
I cannot just shake my head when I see grave injustice being meted out to others just because they are "in their way". I cannot just shake my head when I sense the judiciary is not truly independent and may just be an extension of the political powers to be. These may not still affect me directly but its affects my fellow neighbours. I think we all deserve something better than that.
While there is positive discrimination, I cannot understand why the poor are still poor. I wish for a truly caring government and society that represents what each and every Malaysian's heart in all matters. Bring up our poor collectively.
I also do not want to see any one race group being left behind just because we are trying to practice pure meritocracy. We must bring everyone up collectively.
I do not wish to see my government continuing to divide and conquer, continuing to keep us separate to isolate us, when that is not representative of how we truly feel.
As for corruption, its endemic, starts from the top and goes all the way down. Corruption happens everywhere, even Singapore and HK, but when the sums are so huge, they obviously robs the people of potential investment - we have been giving the other nations in Asia a 20 years head start, enough is enough.
I had only dared hope that change will happen in my lifetime. Hence what is happening is bigger than you and me. It is bigger than the most optimistic PR politician could have imagined if you asked them 2 years ago. The rakyat has taken over the wheel, PR is just the conduit. It is quite an amazing feeling to walk the streets and malls these few days, knowing almost each and everyone of us are going our own way in our routine but harbouring the same sentiment come 5th May.
You keep doing stuff that makes us hate you more, what kind of mandate are you seeking, you don't care ... all the phantom voters, the hooliganism, the shenanigans with the electoral roll, the intimidation, lies and propaganda ... what kind of mandate are you hoping for?
Its our backyard, its the only home we have ... let's take control of our destiny.
We expect them to do "stuff", we will continue to complain, gather evidence of wrongdoing and electioneering offences .... but at the same time we must continue to gather all people we know to vote in order to nullify the "stuff" and "shenanigans".
While crowds at ceramah may not fully transfer into actual votes, I'd rather we have the crowds we had at PR rallies than those at BN rallies.
My prediction, as reflected in the chart below, after consideration for the swings among groupings is 125 for PR, and that is after accounting for shenanigans. The two kingmaker states will be Johor and Sabah.
If y
We hear of so many "tricks", hence not much point in complaining now ... we need to drag all people we know who never voted to go and vote so that we can neutralise the "tricks". Listen to Patrick Teoh making full sense of the whys .... this is bigger than you and me, it totally changes the course of history for us.
Dilbert at the BN strategy room as a guest, or he could be visiting at The Star office....
.jpg)
